EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD retreats from multi-week highs, holds above 1.0800
After climbing to its highest level in over a month above 1.0850 with the immediate reaction to the April inflation data from the US, EUR/USD erased a portion of its daily gains and declined below this level. The improvement seen in risk mood, however, helps the pair hold its ground.
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EUR/USD Technical Overview
The daily chart for the EUR/USD pair shows it trades near a fresh multi-week high of 1.0868 and is poised to extend its advance. The pair is up for a third consecutive day and developing above all its moving averages. The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) gains upward traction below the longer ones, while the 100 SMA provides near-term support around 1.0830. Technical indicators, in the meantime, aim firmly north within positive levels, reflecting increased buying interest.
Bullish strength is more evident in the near term. The 4-hour chart shows the pair running higher above bullish moving averages, with the 20 SMA accelerating north above the longer ones. At the same time, technical indicators head firmly north. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is currently in overbought territory but without signs of upward exhaustion, leaving the door open for additional gains.
Support levels: 1.0830 1.0795 1.0750
Resistance levels: 1.0870 1.0910 1.0945
Fundamental Overview
The EUR/USD pair spent the first half of the day consolidating Tuesday’s gains, reaching a fresh intraday high of 1.0836 during European trading hours. The US Dollar came under selling pressure after the release of the United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI), as wholesale inflation was higher than anticipated on a monthly basis in April. The report gained relevance ahead of the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the same month and after data showed inflationary pressures rose in the first quarter of the year.
The pair then broke higher after the US CPI came pretty much in line with the market expectations. The CPI rose 3.4% YoY in April from 3.5% in March, while the core annual reading printed at 3.6%, easing from the previous 3.8%. On a monthly basis, the CPI was up 0.3%, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), slightly below the expected 0.4%. The figures were short of worrisome but indicated the Federal Reserve (Fed) could extend its wait-and-see stance on monetary policy.
Other US data released alognside resulted discouraging, as Retail Sales stayed pat in April, while the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to -15.6 in May, worse than the -10 anticipated. A couple of Fed speakers will be on the wires after Wall Street’s opening.
Meanwhile, US indexes jumped north with the news, while government bond yields turned lower, putting additional pressure on the USD.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: A better mood puts pressure on the US Dollar Premium
The EUR/USD pair seesawed in a tight range just above the 1.0700 threshold for most of the week, with the US Dollar (USD) finally giving up and extending its slide while heading into the weekly close.
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EUR/USD retreats from multi-week highs, holds above 1.0800
After climbing to its highest level in over a month above 1.0850 with the immediate reaction to the April inflation data from the US, EUR/USD erased a portion of its daily gains and declined below this level. The improvement seen in risk mood, however, helps the pair hold its ground.
GBP/USD clings to daily gains above 1.2600
GBP/USD pulled away from the monthly high it set above 1.2650 but managed to stabilize in positive territory above 1.2600. The US Dollar stays under modest bearish pressure as markets assess the underlying details of the inflation report and how they could influence the Fed's rate outlook.
USD/JPY extends its upside above 156.50 ahead of US CPI, Retail Sales data
The USD/JPY pair trades in positive territory for the fourth consecutive day near 156.55 on Wednesday during the Asian session. The uptick of the pair is bolstered by the speculation that the Federal Reserve might maintain rates higher for longer amid the elevated inflation.
Gold stays above $2,360 after US inflation report
Gold trades modestly higher on the day above $2,360 in the American session. The data from the US showed that annual inflation edged lower to 3.4% in April as expected. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in the red below 4.4%, allowing XAU/USD to keep its footing.
Oil sinks while the Greenback retreats on softer CPI print
Oil breaks below $78.00 after both OPEC and IEA released their monthly reports. While OPEC stuck to previous expectations, sluggish demand is forecasted in the IEA release. The US Dollar Index eases ahead of the US CPI print.
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EUR/USD Yearly forecast
How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 EUR/USD forecast!
EUR/USD FORECAST 2024
In the EURUSD 2024 Forecast, our analyst, Valeria Bednarik, anticipates gains for the next couple of months. The Eurozone economy would need to show steady signs of recovery to prevent EUR/USD from collapsing below 1.0390 in the year's second half. Read more details about the forecast.
The pair traded as low as 1.0447 and as high as 1.1275 throughout 2023, with currencies moving on sentiment.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR EUR/USD
There is a note of color that would stand out in the upcoming months: the US 2024 presidential election that will take place on November 5. The contest nomination will start as soon as January and run until June. The pinch of drama comes from Donald Trump’s desire to represent Republicans once again. A potential second government of Donald Trump could mean higher inflationary pressures as Trump could reintroduce tariffs on imports and push against the agreements between China and the Biden administration.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism.
ECB Official Website, on Twitter and YouTube
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).
Lagarde on ECB'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EUR/USD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.